Last January I made a few predictions about the then-future of legislation in the U.S. In the spirit of trying to be better, I feel like I should tell you how bad those predictions were, and try to make some better ones today.
Looking back
Predicting the future is hard. At the beginning of Biden's term, I made a series of predictions that seem wildly uninformed looking back. I even tried amending these predictions when they looked bad, but still failed to get things right. Third time's the charm though, as I did figure out that Congress is almost always slower than I think.
So these were pretty bad, but I did make some improvements over time. People who are into making predictions about the future (in order to get better at it) suggest that doing this is the way to improve, so hopefully I can do better with the predictions below. But, if not, I will let you all know!
United States
A Manchin-Cosigned version of BBB will pass the U.S. Senate before Pres. Biden gives the State of the Union Address on March 1st. (30%)
I think this bill will include literally whatever Joe Manchin wants, which seems to be:
Around $500 Billion in Climate spending (That’s crazy! Way to go.)
Funding for a near-universal Pre-K program
And funding for childcare and eldercare subsidies
I am pretty skittish because of how wrong I was about my takes last year, so I want to down grade the confidence in all my predictions this year. It seems like everyone is headed in this direction, but who knows.
A Manchin-Cosigned version of BBB will pass the U.S. Senate before Nov. 1st, 2022 (95%)
Basically everything above but like a much easier prediction of it. He has said multiple times that BBB will pass before November, and I take his word very seriously. Plus, Rep. Pramila Jayapal seems completely on board with passing whatever Manchin wants. I wish her and the Dem leadership would have said and done this last Summer, but better late than never.
Some form of CTC Expansion Bill will get signed into law before Nov. 1st, 2022 (10%)
I really wish I could put this at 99% confidence, because the CTC expansion (and the move to make it fully refundable--making it available to as many people with kids as possible--are probably the most important policies to pass congress in my lifetime. It seems to have cut childhood poverty by 30% last year, and that is really amazing. Unfortunately, Dem. Sen. Joe Manchin doesn't seem to have an appetite for extending it in the upcoming BBB bill (which requires fewer votes than regular bills--mainly because the U.S. Senate has dumb rules) and there aren't enough republicans who would support Sen. Mitt Romney's great version of a CTC expansion. I am holding out hope that a bipartisan group of 60 Senators can get Romney's bill passed, but I don't think it is likely.
USICA Compromise bill will pass before March 1st, 2022 (50%)
Now that the House finally has a completed version of what the Senate bill called the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act, the Senate and House can start hammering out compromises that will pass both chambers. There seems to be bipartisan support for this bill in both chambers, and I think everyone wants it to pass ASAP, so I think there's a real chance it passes in the next month. On the other hand, Congress always moves slowly, so I wouldn't be shocked if it took a bit longer. Thus, my prediction for it passing this year is much stronger.
USCIA Compromise bill will pass before Nov. 1st, 2022 (95%)
See above.
A reform to the Electoral Count Act will become law sometime before Nov. 1st, 2022 (40%)
There seems to be bipartisan support for updating an old election law in a way that will prevent Trump and his lackeys from performing a legally sanctioned coup d'état, where his supporters in the right elected positions can vote against the will of the majority of voters and place him in power. I hope this happens because I think anti-democratic rulers are bad and democracies are good. I also hope it inspires some of my fellow left-leaning people to stop their apocalyptic rhetoric surrounding the Republican party as a whole. I do see why they feel they need to speak in such ways (there are some real wackos in the party!). But there are also many good people working to pass policies that will make the country better--both in ways I agree with, and in ways I don't. If more of us could see that people on all sides of political debates do not want an authoritarian in our country, I think that would be good for us all.
Biden's Approval/Disapproval rating will be 45/48 respectively on Nov. 1st, 2022 (40%)
This is actually one of my bolder predictions, I think, but I am fairly optimistic I will be vindicated at the end of the year. It is hard to know what his ratings will be, considering the myriad factors that will impact these numbers. But I do think it was a hard 1st year for the president in certain ways, and I believe Dem leadership are committed to rectifying their failures. I think there is low-hanging fruit that they can address easily in both messaging, leadership strategy, and through their legislative actions. I don't think the White House is going to shift their rhetoric drastically, they seem to be set on speaking more to highly-educated, partisan Democrats, than to saying things that the average swing voter would like to hear. That's fine for them, but I don't think it is a good strategy. However, I do think they are changing their strategy in the last two areas, in a stronger direction. Jayapal and Manchin are hammering out a deal on BBB, rather than fighting publicly over their disagreements. Republicans and Democrats are working on finding compromises on the USICA that would spur science and technology in America, rather than fighting about how they disagree on those same topics. Bipartisan legislation on the current situation in Russia seems like it will come soon. These are all things that will help Democrats, Biden, and the country. Thus, I think a year of this type of cooperation, and some modest decreases in inflation, could yield some modest increases in public opinion on Biden. I estimated how large I think these gains will be by looking at 538's data on previous presidential approval ratings, and how much they change between their respective points in their terms and their first midterm elections. As I said, I am optimistic about what will come this year, so I listed moderately positive numbers, but, in any case, I predict better numbers for Biden by midterm season.
Dems lose both houses of Congress (85%)
But I don't think these improvements in his ratings will be enough for swing voters and inconsistent voters (the most important groups for winning elections) to side with Democrats in November. Even if Democrats did really well, they have some institutional bias stacked against them (gerrymandered districts in the House, less-populated state bias in the Senate), and they are facing historical norms that show parties in power get smoked in the midterms. Further, like I mentioned above, I think the Democrats have made some poor messaging and legislative choices over the past year, and I don't think that will be forgotten. Not to mention, they are in power when there are currently problems in the world, so they will be blamed!
Michelle Childs will be nominated to the U.S. Supreme Court (30%)
Michelle Childs has the support of Rep. Jim Clyburn, who Biden trust heavily, and Sen. Lindsay Graham. That is essentially enough for me to think she will be Biden's nominee. There are increasingly more reports saying I will be wrong about this, but we shall see.
International
The United States and Russia will not go to war over Ukraine's sovereignty (85%)
I think it is much more like that Russia goes to war with Ukraine over the disputed territories, while the U.S. and NATO supply weapons and aid to the Ukraine, but refraining from engaging in the war itself. I hope neither of these outcomes happens though. I would like the U.S., NATO, and Russia to compromise that Ukraine will remain sovereign and out of NATO for a specified period of time, and then everyone can go home. Prayers up for peace!
Russia will invade Ukraine within the next 6 months (50%)
As I mentioned above, I really hope this prediction is wrong, but it seems that everyone in the U.S. State Dept. believes a Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent, so I don’t really have good reason to dispute them. One more prayer up for peace!
The Ethiopian/Tigrayan Civil War will come to an end by the end of the year (40%)
It is really hard to estimate this one, considering reporting coming out of Ethiopia has been sparse and unreliable. But it seems like Ethiopia's government has been using drone weapons to turn the tide in the conflict. This conflict has been a devastating humanitarian disaster, and I really hope the conflict will end ASAP, so that the rebuilding and healing process can begin.
Miscellaneous
Chiefs win the Superbowl…was my prediction when I started writing this post a couple weeks ago.
Now? I don’t know? Rams by 4? I guess I would predict the Rams win with 25% confidence, but I'd like to see the Chiefs take the Superbowl. I am an outspoken Matthew Stafford hater, so I really don’t want them to win, but they do seem to have the better team. We shall see in a few hours!
Donda doesn't drop on or before 2/22/22 (60%)
This is just empirical observation of Kanye's past behavior. Prove me wrong Ye!
The Warriors will win the NBA Championship (20%)
I think the Warriors are really hard to stop when playing their best ball. But there are a lot of great teams playing right now. I could seriously see Lebron and the Lakers upsetting top seed in the first round of the playoffs. You never know.
The Minnesota Timberwolves will make the NBA Playoffs (50%)
The T-Wolves are playing surprisingly well this year and are a few games above .500 for only the second time in almost 2 decades. They are currently the 7th seed in the West. I believe they will continue this success and at least make it into the playoffs this year. This may be wishful thinking, but they do have a league-leading offense and can only improve on defense!
I will continue to publish miscellaneous predictions as I think of them, either on here or on Twitter. I think it is helpful in making me think about just how ignorant I am about certain topics or the likelihood of certain outcomes. This isn’t a bad thing though, as I can then grow once I see the need for growth in these areas.